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<article article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.3" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xml:lang="ru"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">tumnig</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title xml:lang="ru">Известия высших учебных заведений. Нефть и газ</journal-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Oil and Gas Studies</trans-title></trans-title-group></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">0445-0108</issn><issn pub-type="epub">3033-8174</issn><publisher><publisher-name>Industrial University of Tyumen</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.31660/0445-0108-2026-1-61-72</article-id><article-id custom-type="edn" pub-id-type="custom">VONIOV</article-id><article-id custom-type="elpub" pub-id-type="custom">tumnig-1405</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="ru"><subject>БУРЕНИЕ СКВАЖИН И РАЗРАБОТКА МЕСТОРОЖДЕНИЙ</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="en"><subject>DRILLING OF WELLS AND FIELDS DEVELOPMENT</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Идентификация динамики обводнения добывающей скважины  после прорыва техногенной трещины от нагнетательной</article-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Identification of water-cut dynamics in a producing well after breakthrough of a water-induced fracture</trans-title></trans-title-group></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Изотов</surname><given-names>А. А.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Izotov</surname><given-names>A. A.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Изотов Алексей Александрович, директор по науке и инновациям</p><p>Тюмень</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Aleksey A. Izotov, Business Development Director</p><p>Tyumen</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">aaizotov@rn-gir.rosneft.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4768-8511</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Мулявин</surname><given-names>С. Ф.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Mulyavin</surname><given-names>S. F.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Мулявин Семен Федорович, доктор технических наук, профессор кафедры разработки и эксплуатации нефтяных и газовых месторождений</p><p>Тюмень</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Semyon F. Mulyavin, Doctor of Engineering Sciences, Professor at the Development and Exploitation of Oil and Gas Fields </p><p>Tyumen</p></bio><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-2"/></contrib></contrib-group><aff-alternatives id="aff-1"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>ООО «РН-Геология Исследования Разработка»</institution><country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>LLC «RNGIR»</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><aff-alternatives id="aff-2"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>Тюменский индустриальный университет</institution><country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>Industrial University of Tyumen</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2026</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>05</day><month>03</month><year>2026</year></pub-date><volume>0</volume><issue>1</issue><fpage>61</fpage><lpage>72</lpage><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright &amp;#x00A9; Изотов А.А., Мулявин С.Ф., 2026</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2026</copyright-year><copyright-holder xml:lang="ru">Изотов А.А., Мулявин С.Ф.</copyright-holder><copyright-holder xml:lang="en">Izotov A.A., Mulyavin S.F.</copyright-holder><license xml:lang="ru" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.</license-p></license><license xml:lang="en" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://tumnig.tyuiu.ru/jour/article/view/1405">https://tumnig.tyuiu.ru/jour/article/view/1405</self-uri><abstract><p>Техногенные трещины, образующиеся в результате закачки воды, могут соединять нагнетательные и добывающие скважины. Однако доля добываемой воды часто увеличивается лишь после первоначально умеренного отклика, возникающего после прорыва. Мы предполагаем, что это замедленное ускорение обусловлено зависящей от времени утечкой через стенки трещины: взвешенные частицы осаждаются и образуют фильтрационную корку, постепенно уменьшая проницаемость стенок трещины, что обеспечивает рост доли закачиваемой воды, поступающей в добывающую скважину. Современные законы утечки явно связывают ее с ростом фильтрационной корки и динамическими эффектами поперечного потока. Мы формулируем упрощенную одномерную модель для уже существующей трещины, соединяющей две скважины. Поток вдоль трещины описывается законом Пуазейля для щели с учетом распределенной утечки, пропорциональной разнице давлений между трещиной и пластом. Засорение вводится как увеличивающееся со временем сопротивление утечке, что согласуется с концепциями образования фильтрационной корки/скина, широко используемыми в моделировании потерь жидкости. Для доли закачиваемой воды, поступающей в добывающую скважину, упрощенная форма дает явное выражение, которое непосредственно соответствует прогнозу обводненности при постоянном дебите жидкости. Пример, рассчитанный для месторождения в Западной Сибири, воспроизводит распространенное наблюдение: обводненность увеличивается с ~30 % при прорыве до &gt;90 % в течение ~3 месяцев без изменения режимов работы скважин. Мы также обсуждаем, почему добывающие скважины действуют как аттракторы траекторий для медленно развивающихся трещин, вызванных закачкой, посредством пороупругих возмущений напряжений, и почему ствол скважины может остановить трещину после пересечения, что согласуется с взаимодействием трещины и скважины в рамках механики разрушения типа «остановочного отверстия».</p></abstract><trans-abstract xml:lang="en"><p>Water-induced fractures created during water injection can connect injection and production wells. However, the fraction of produced water often increases significantly only after an initially moderate response following breakthrough. We hypothesize that this delayed acceleration is due to time-dependent leakoff through the fracture walls. Suspended solids are deposited and form a filter cake, gradually reducing wall permeability that increases the fraction of injected water delivered to the producing well. Modern leakoff models explicitly relate leakoff to growth of filter cake and the dynamic effects of transverse flow. We formulate a reduced one-dimensional model for an extant fracture that connecting two wells. Poiseuille law describes flow along the fracture for a slot taken into account distributed leakoff proportional to the pressure difference between the fracture and the formation. We introduce fouling as a time-increasing resistance to leakoff, consistent with filter cake and skin formation concepts widely used in fluid losses modeling. The reduced form yields an explicit expression for the fraction of injected water that enters the producing well. This explicit directly correlates to the predicted water-cut at a constant liquid rate. An example for a West Siberian field reproduces a common observation: the water-cut rises from ~30% at breakthrough to &gt;90% within ~3 months without changes in well operating conditions. We also discuss why producing wells act as attractors for the trajectories of slowly propagating injectioninduced fractures due to poroelastic stress perturbations, and why a wellbore can arrest a fracture after intersection. This behavior agrees with fracture – well interaction in the framework of "stophole" fracture mechanics</p></trans-abstract><kwd-group xml:lang="ru"><kwd>техногенная трещина</kwd><kwd>автоГРП</kwd><kwd>обводнение</kwd><kwd>прорыв воды</kwd><kwd>заводнение</kwd></kwd-group><kwd-group xml:lang="en"><kwd>water-induced fracture</kwd><kwd>fracturing (auto-frac)</kwd><kwd>waterc-cut</kwd><kwd>water breakthrough</kwd><kwd>waterflooding</kwd></kwd-group></article-meta></front><back><ref-list><title>References</title><ref id="cit1"><label>1</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Witherspoon P. A., Wang J. S., Iwai K., Gale J. E. Validity of cubic law for fluid flow in a deformable rock fracture. Technical information report. 1979;23 (No. LBL-9557). Lawrence Berkeley National Lab.(LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). https://doi.org/10.2172/5704312</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Witherspoon P. A., Wang J. S., Iwai K., Gale J. E. 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