D-CRMP history matching considering predictive properties
https://doi.org/10.31660/0445-0108-2023-2-62-82
Abstract
The article presents results of tests of software that implements the D-CRMP model. D-CRMP is a version of the analytical capacitance-resistance model (CRM) that is primarily used for waterflood characterization and reservoir management. The difference of D-CRMP lies in its ability to take into account the shut-in periods of production wells during history matching. The optimization problem is solved by means of simulated annealing and sequential least-squares quadratic programming from the SciPy library. The study considers the feature of solving the D-CRMP equation related to the errors in the reservoir liquid production forecast when previously shut-in well starting its production. The selection of the objective function and constraints, which are preferable when using the mentioned algorithms for D-CRMP history matching, is made. A method for choosing the best model is indicated when using an algorithm, which is dependent on pseudorandom number generator. The choice is made taking into account the predictive properties of the models. An approach to calculating confidence intervals based on the F-test is considered in detail. Evaluation of confidence intervals is caried out.
Keywords
reservoir engineering,
production forecast,
analytical model,
Capacitance Resistance Model,
optimization problem,
SLSQP algorithm,
simulated annealing algorithm,
SciPy,
F-test
Supporting agencies: Работа выполнена в рамках государственного задания (№ госрегистрации 121030500156-6).
About the Authors
N. G. Musakaev
Tyumen Branch of Khristianovich Institute of Theoretical and Applied Mechanics of SB RAS; Industrial University of Tyumen
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Nail G. Musakaev, Doctor of Physics and Mathematics, Professor, Chief Researcher; Professor at the Department of Development and Exploitation of Oil and Gas Fields
Tyumen
S. P. Rodionov
Tyumen Branch of Khristianovich Institute of Theoretical and Applied Mechanics of SB RAS
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Sergey P. Rodionov, Doctor of Physics and Mathematics, Chief Researcher
Tyumen
V. I. Lebedev
Tyumen Branch of Khristianovich Institute of Theoretical and Applied Mechanics of SB RAS; Industrial University of Tyumen
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Vladimir I. Lebedev, Research Engineer; Postgraduate
Tyumen
E. N. Musakaev
Tyumen Branch of Khristianovich Institute of Theoretical and Applied Mechanics of SB RAS; NS Digital LLC
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Emil N. Musakaev, Candidate of Engineering, Researcher; Integrated Modeling Specialist
Tyumen
References
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Review
For citations:
Musakaev N.G., Rodionov S.P., Lebedev V.I., Musakaev E.N. D-CRMP history matching considering predictive properties. Oil and Gas Studies. 2023;(2):62-82. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.31660/0445-0108-2023-2-62-82
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