Comparison of the classical method of integral characteristics of displacement and the probability approach in terms of accuracy of forecasting recoverable oil reserves

Abstract

Displacement characteristics offer a fast and efficient way to forecast recoverable oil reserves and evaluate the effectiveness of geological and technical interventions. Displacement characteristics helps significantly reduce the time and financial costs associated with constructing a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model. The authors of this paper introduce a probabilistic approach that extrapolates oil production dynamics using integral water-cut curves. This study com-pares the classical displacement-characteristics method with the probabilistic approach and assess their prediction accuracy. Also, they present the forecasting algorithm and analyze how the method performs at various water-cut levels at the end of the approximation interval. During the early stages of development, the probabilistic approach demonstrates higher accuracy than the traditional approach. Additionally, the authors outline criteria to help eliminate unrealistic extrapolated results when applying the probabilistic method.